I'm going to level with you: I don't like the EU. I never have. One of the earliest posts on this blog was on the subject of the European Union - and it was far from positive. I later wrote an article comparing the EU to the Chinese communist party. My job brings me into semi-regular contact with EU institutions (primarily the EU intellectual property office) and much of what they do seems wasteful.
But I'm going to vote to stay in the EU.
I'm not going to vote out of any commitment to European federalism - a project I think incredibly misguided and likely to end in disaster, and which has resulted in disaster with the Euro. If this referendum were about avoiding joining the Euro, or creating a European army, or any of the federal projects that the Brexit campaign say may happen (but won't because the UK has a veto on them), then I'd vote to leave in a heart-beat. The high-flown ideals that supporters of the EU sometimes talk about leave me cold. At this stage if you're not sceptical about the EU then you just haven't been paying attention.
Unlike that previous referendum on another union - the United Kingdom - the (happily inaccurate) polls showing a majority favouring a vote to leave don't hit me like a punch to the gut. Whilst I have family connections to other EU countries, it's not like leaving the EU is going to endanger these. There's a possibility that new immigration rules might be troublesome if I wanted to live on the continent again, and possibly my wife may have to get a visa, but these are hardly insuperable challenges.
No, if we leave the EU things will most likely (eventually) be OK. But we'd also likely be poorer than we would be if we stayed - almost all the experts say so - and there seems no real likelihood that there would any commensurate gain to offset that. Even pro-remain economists like Andrew Lilico think we'd miss out on around 2-3% in GDP growth in the short-medium term, which offsets even the most optimistic predictions about how much would be saved.
The story that we'd be doing more business outside of Europe if we were outside the EU is the sheerest, most pure fantasy. There is absolutely no-one out there of any real credibility saying "I'd love to do invest in the UK, but I can't because of the EU" or "I'd like to buy your products, but the EU is stopping me". People who think otherwise seem to me simply to be people obsessed with extremely minor things like the so-called "tampon tax", or immigration, something which I do not see as a problem at the moment (or at least not one where the EU is the main source of the problem).
Instead I can see from my own work that Brexit will inevitably lead to slower growth and most likely a recession in the short term. I am already hearing from friends in the UK patents/trademarks trade that their US, Chinese, and Japanese clients are worried that they won't be able to represent them fully in the EU post-Brexit, and some are bound to switch to EU-based firms if we leave the EU, even if we somehow remain in the EEA by joining the EFTA (something the Leave campaign has ruled out). Nothing, absolutely nothing that the Brexit campaign have shown any credible evidence for, is worth making ourselves poorer than we might otherwise have been.
Leaving the EU marginally increases the risk of war on the continent by emboldening aggressive regimes such as Vladimir Putin's. It also may possibly strengthen the case for Scottish independence in the long term. By themselves these wouldn't stop me voting to leave the EU if there was any substance at all to the claim that UK sovereignty were seriously endangered by the EU, but since it isn't, they also count in my decision-making.
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The UK is losing many Chinese (and probably other Asian) tourists because it is not part of the Schengen agreement. Most Chinese travellers would rather go to the Schengen countries, which all require the same visa. It is complicated for a Chinese to apply for a visa for a Western country, and if they are going to do a tour of Europe, they will skip the country that requires them to apply separately.
In general, it strikes me that the UK has always stayed out of the Union when it really mattered (like with the Euro, and that was a good thing, or with the Schengen zone). In many ways, it is barely part of the EU even now. If you believe in building a united Europe, you might actually wish the Brits to leave, as the whole project has never interested them and probably never will.
My dream would be the end of UK, and England out of the EU, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland remained in it.
There is no worse place in Europe right now than London. I hate it like nothing else.
Greetings from Glasgow
If being out of the Schengen visa zone means less Chinese tourists in Britain... then I hope Britain stays out.
@Meursault:
come on now. Chinese tourists in Britain have not up to now made fools of themselves like the ones who go to Thailand. I have just spent months in London, and I never saw any bad behaviour from any Chinese visitors when I went to touristy places. I don't see any reason not to want Chinese visitors.
And in any case, I am talking about the economic benefit of Chinese tourism to Great Britain.
@Ji Xiang - "In general, it strikes me that the UK has always stayed out of the Union when it really mattered (like with the Euro, and that was a good thing, or with the Schengen zone). In many ways, it is barely part of the EU even now. If you believe in building a united Europe, you might actually wish the Brits to leave, as the whole project has never interested them and probably never will."
Yes, this is the line that "Federalists for Brexit" take. I think it's baloney.
You see, the UK at the moment has the best of both worlds: we're in enough to be able to stymie federalist moves like the creation of a European Army and upset any proposals to turn the EU into a protectionist trading block (the preferred route of many French politicians), but have stayed out of the most harmful European project (the Euro). Of course this allows Federalists to blame the failure of their projects on the UK, rather than simply admitting that they weren't such good ideas in the first place and that the one thing on which they mostly got their way (the Euro) they have caused a massive disaster.
Being out of the Schengen area is an inconvenience but I can't bring myself to get angry about it. If we miss out on some tourism, this is a relatively minor loss.
@Mackenzie - "There is no worse place in Europe right now than London. I hate it like nothing else . . .Greetings from Glasgow"
Need I point out the irony of people who apparently attack what they perceive as the xenophobia of the English, and then admit their own hatred of a good part of the English?
What's so dreadful about the creation of a European army? If we are going to have armies, might as well have one which counts. European countries all share common values and interests, at least compared to Russia, China, the US and Iran.
I agree that the Euro was a mistake (or least extending it beyond northern Europe was a mistake), but I don't think anyone is blaming its problems on Britain not joining.
" If we are going to have armies, might as well have one which counts."
In the short term it would be bad because it would make us weaker. The EU already has at least two militaries that count (the UK and France) and one that might again if more was spent on it (Germany) so it doesn't need to form an EU army to "count". There's an assumption here that in this regard an EU army would more than a sum of its parts, which wasn't true of the Euro and would likely not be true of an EU military either. There would be a long period of re-organisation, likely lower morale because the number of people who actually identify primarily as Europeans is tiny, and paralysis because actually member states disagree on a great deal - a number of them are constitutionally or de-facto neutral/pacifist countries. In the short term, it would be a disaster and unusable.
In the long term, it could become a threat to the independence of European states, since such a force would be a focus point for federalism and a power-base for federalists.
Nobody will accept a powerful German military, either within Germany or in the rest of the world. France and the UK can no longer be world powers on their own. A united Europe obviously would be. Even the Euro, regardless of the fact that it caused a lot of trouble in Southern Europe, is actually more then the sum of its parts: Euros are more valued around the world then Francs or Marks used to be, let alone Italian lira. About morale, I think you will find that outside of Britain there are more people ready to identify with Europe then you think.
When it comes to the independence of European states, the whole point of the EU is that they will lose much of it. Is that really such a terrible thing? Most of Europe's problems (including the refugee crisis) cannot be solved by dozens of squabbling states. And since you are so worried about democracy, do you realise the role which the EU plays in guaranteeing democracy, especially in Eastern Europe?
" I think you will find that outside of Britain there are more people ready to identify with Europe then you think."
I have lived and worked in two EU countries and travelled extensively in many more. My work has taken me to Strasbourg and The Hague, and I am involved in regular communications with the EUIPO (formerly OHIM - the Office for Harmonisation in the Internal Market) in Alicante.
I have never, ever, met even a single person who identified primarily as European. Not one. There people who identify with Europe to a lesser or greater extent, but no-one who would, if asked where they were from, say "Europe". To say so would be to make a meaningless statement.
As far as I can see, belief in European federalism is a fringe belief of a tiny minority, mostly made up of the fairly wealthy.
"When it comes to the independence of European states, the whole point of the EU is that they will lose much of it. Is that really such a terrible thing?"
Yes, it is. All you need do is look at Greece to see where this has led: Greece's issues would be their own, their politicians would not have been able to dole out EU largesse, had Greece not been in the Euro.
Like I said, extending the Euro to countries like Greece was a huge mistake. They simply aren't on the same economic plane as the other countries involved. The problem wasn't "EU largesse" though. But it could be argued that the issue is that the countries aren't integrated enough. If Greek social services were actually European social services, paid for by the whole of Europe, then at least laid off Greeks would have a safety net. Using the same currency when everything else that matters isn't in common doesn't make sense.
I am of course aware that 99% of people identify with their own country more than they do with Europe. That doesn't mean that the concept of a federal Europe never interested them. In Italy most of the population was quite enthusiastic about the European Union until the financial crisis of 2010, which was blamed on the Euro. I think many Europeans would be happy to be seen primarily as Europeans in the rest of the world, especially those from smaller countries.
And again, you are ignoring the important role of the EU in making sure that countries like Hungary and Poland stick to European standards of democracy and freedom of the press.
"If Greek social services were actually European social services, paid for by the whole of Europe, then at least laid off Greeks would have a safety net."
Any social service designed to meet the needs of the peoples of Germany, Luxembourg, or the Netherlands would be ridiculously excessive for Greece, to the point that they would (further) discourage the Greeks from ever working, and could never possibly be paid for by them.
"In Italy most of the population was quite enthusiastic about the European Union until the financial crisis of 2010, which was blamed on the Euro".
When things are popular until they actually affect the life of the average person, the implication is that the actual thing itself is not popular, but people did not understand it fully.
"you are ignoring the important role of the EU in making sure that countries like Hungary and Poland stick to European standards of democracy and freedom of the press."
I have written before about PiS (I don't really know enough about Hungary to comment much about it), but from what I can see the effect of the EU on PiS's policies (which are popular in Poland) has been quite minimal. EU membership's economic impact in Poland, on the other hand, has been entirely to the good, but this the benefit of trading blocks.
"I think many Europeans would be happy to be seen primarily as Europeans in the rest of the world, especially those from smaller countries."
Not in Ireland. Not in the Baltics. Not in Slovakia or the Czech Republic (I can't bring myself to call it "Czechia" yet). Not in Greece. Not in Portugal. At least not in my experience.
The people of the BeNeLux countries can go on pretending that they are Europe, since they receive the benefit of so much EU money by being the primary base of the EU institutions, wielding disproportionate power by so often being the country of origin of the leaders of EU institutions, and taking advantage of the opportunity to become the home of so much European business through low tax-rate, but they aren't kidding anyone.
"I am of course aware that 99% of people identify with their own country more than they do with Europe."
Which is the primary reason that Germans will never be happy to fund the Greek social benefits system.
PS - I think you can see that I wasn't lying about being a Eurosceptic.
Here we go again.
Tony Blair - all round political grub and Bush ball boy - unleashing his own WMD nonsense against the exit crowd.
Just wait for the release of the Chilcot Report. There will be denials, lying and trimming which will make Richard Nixon seen like a paragon of virtue.
He and his ugly money grubbing wife should have been fed to the pigs ages ago.
His only redeeming quality I suppose is that he is not an associate of Jeremy Clarkson.
KT
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