Sunday 11 June 2017

This extraordinary result

I think it was the smiles on their faces that gave the game away a bit: when David Dimbley (pictured above) and his co-presenters opened the BBC election night results special they all had a bit of a jaunty aspect to them, as though they already knew what the exit poll said and were looking forward to the shock it was going to give us.

And what a shock! Not just the polling of the previous year or more, but the results of the local elections less than two months before the result, all pointed to a not-undeserved hammering for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. Even the tightening in the polls in the two weeks before the election had pointed only to a marginally-less-dire-but-still-dire result for Corbyn's Labour.

On my way to the polling station at my local church hall I was impressed only by the relatively low apparent turn-out, though I did remark on the tellers for Labour at each of the polling stations I had passed - they had been thin on the ground at the previous election where I had been a teller. I put my cross next to the Liberal Democrat's name (my first time not voting Tory in a general election), safe in the knowledge that the Conservatives would sweep not only my constituency (which they did, albeit by a reduced majority) but also most of the country.

Instead, when I switched on my television at 9.55pm, expecting to see the inevitable Tory victory and to be in bed before 11, with not a small measure of satisfaction I saw Mrs. May stunningly denied the majority that she seemed to have thought would be hers by default. May, whose leadership victory I had cautiously welcomed as the only viable option in the aftermath of Brexit, and who had then betrayed every moderate conservative in the country by hitching her star to the xenophobic poison of Hard Brexit, had been brought low.

Not only that, but Jeremy Corbyn had been denied victory. From the point of view of anyone for whom a Corbyn victory would have been a disaster, but for whom also Hard Brexit would be a disaster, this was the best possible result.

It got even better as the Scottish results became apparent: Nicola Sturgeon's arrogance in pressing for another referendum on Scottish independence had back-fired spectacularly. Not only did the Scottish Conservatives under the leadership of excellent Ruth Davidson capture a dozen Scottish seats, but also Kezia Dugdale's Scottish Labour had captured another seven, and the Liberal Democrats had also picked up a couple. The "majority for independence" that we had been told existed in Scotland was obviously a phantom.

The icing on the cake was that UKIP, which at one point threatened both Labour in the north of England and the Conservatives in the South, had imploded, taking bare percentage-points of the vote. The receding of the UKIP tide had raised the vote-share of the two main parties to heights not seen in decades, and puts an end to our supposedly "fragmented" politics.

Since the results became known we have been told that the Conservatives have either made a deal with, or are on the cusp of making a deal with, the Democratic Unionist Party to remain in power. This is a disreputable deal which can only rebound on Theresa May and which sensible Tory MPs will try to distance themselves from. Whilst not as closely related to paramilitary violence as Corbyn's friends in Sinn Fein (who announced - in what Corbyn must feel is a great act of ingratitude - that they would not support a Labour government) the DUP's links to Loyalist paramilitaries are both informal and undeniable, and their endorsement by paramilitary organisations was only grudgingly disavowed.

This coalition cannot last long, nor can the leadership of Theresa May. At the same time the Hard Brexit this election had been called to empower has been left without support opening a narrow window of opportunity to change course. The "Saboteurs" that the Daily Mail had gleefully called to be "crushed" will have their say. At last, there is a bit of hope.

As for the person who I did not wish to win, but whose performance during the campaign undoubtedly did more than perhaps anyone's efforts (apart from Theresa May's, obviously)? Well, I still do not support Jeremy Corbyn, do not agree with his policies, think him a weak leader surrounded by incompetents, think his views on the EU are both dishonest and disastrous, but were he to renounce Brexit tomorrow I would certainly give the idea of voting for his party some consideration.

Finally: I was obviously wrong, many commenters were obviously wrong, about what the outcome of this election would be. From now on I doubt I will think of the polls as much more than slight indicators of what the final result will be, since it is now obvious that people can and will change their minds about who to vote for in large numbers in the weeks leading up to an election.

3 comments:

justrecently said...

Labour didn't offer much concerning Brexit - <a href="https://foarp.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-brexit-election.html?showComment=1497045985644#c76859028912983762512>that's true</a>, and it's understandable that you want a party to offer an alternative there. But then, you had the Liberal Democrats - third option. If I can believe Swiss radio, Brexit wasn't foremost on the minds of most Labour voters - contrary to the Tory campaign plans.

As the "Economist" wrote, five days before electon day: "Mr Corbyn's relatively successful campaign has demonstrated that espousing socialist opinionsis not necessarily the kiss of death".

justrecently said...

Let me try to make my comment more user-friendly:

Labour didn't offer much concerning Brexit - that's true*), and it's understandable that you want a party to offer an alternative there. But then, you had the Liberal Democrats - third option. If I can believe Swiss radio, Brexit wasn't foremost on the minds of most Labour voters - contrary to the Tory campaign plans.

As the "Economist" wrote, five days before electon day: "Mr Corbyn's relatively successful campaign has demonstrated that espousing socialist opinionsis not necessarily the kiss of death".
____________

*)This refers to one of your previous comments: https://foarp.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-brexit-election.html?showComment=1497045985644#c76859028912983762512

Gilman Grundy said...

"If I can believe Swiss radio, Brexit wasn't foremost on the minds of most Labour voters - contrary to the Tory campaign plans"

The polling released by Lord Ashcroft shows that Labour voters did not have Brexit foremost in mind. It also shows that Labour voters were the most anti-Brexit of all parties except the Lib-Dems, and that the majority of people who voted Remain (51%) who voted in this election, voted Labour. This can be read either way.

The Lib-Dems are still poisonous for people on the left because of their coalition with the Conservatives - oddly, people who favour coalition politics do not actually like the reality of it, but seem to like it only in theory (that theory being that it can be used to achieve an eternal left-wing government apparently). Labour is the only place that Remainers of the left can feel at home.

But the simple fact remains that Brexit is an incredible act of self-harm, economic, constitutional, diplomatic, and political. It has to be stopped. I would even be willing to tolerate a Corbyn government for a few years to achieve that.