In light of just how clearly unsuited to the job of president Donald Trump is, it is perhaps not surprising to see a lot of people castigating Trump for offending China's Communist rulers by accepting a congratulatory phone-call from Tsai Ing-Wen, Taiwan's democratically-elected president, and seizing on this as further evidence of Trump's incompetence.
Let's be clear on this: Trump may be incompetent, but Taiwan is a US ally which the United States is committed to defend against Chinese aggression. As Trump himself pointed out, the US has supplied Taiwan with billions in military hardware. The idea that there's no contact between the two states is just silly, and the US president-elect speaking to the Taiwanese president is just a natural extension of that.
The purpose of diplomacy is not to please all people in the world all the time. It is certainly not to avoid ever offending the Chinese government.
Yes, Trump is careless. Yes, announcing this conversation to the world via Twitter is perhaps not wise. Yes, there is the suspicion that he did this without actually knowing the nature of US-Taiwan relations. Ultimately, though, he has not done anything wrong in talking to Tsai.
The only wrong here is the one that the Chinese government continues in committing year after year: diplomatically isolating the people of Taiwan and their democratically-elected representatives.
[Picture: Tsai Ing-Wen on the campaign trail circa 2009. Via Wiki]
8 comments:
I'll appreciate Trump's approach if it is followed up by a consistent Taiwan policy. The island could use all the support America might want to provide - in expanding its diplomatic base, and its base of trade agreements with the US and with third countries.
But that's the catch. So far, I would guess that Washington DC will do less for Taiwan in these fields (looking at TTP, and at Trump's announcements that America'a allies must take much bigger shares in defense costs).
Tsai was right to try to talk to Trump. But in taking the call, Trump has raised expectations in Taiwan. Can he deliver?
Yes, pretty obviously if this is the only change then it won't achieve anything except widen a little bit Taiwan's access to the Us government.
My main target, in this piece is just the way many US-based China analysts have just flipped out about this story. There seems to be an automatic assumption that just because US leaders have not spoken to Taiwanese ones since 1979 that this is the correct state of affairs, that no-one may ever question whether the present status of Taiwan, a status that has only ever been conceived by any of the players involved (US, CCP, KMT, DPP etc.) as temporary, really should continue indefinitely without adjustment to the fact that, barring war, Taiwan is not going to return to Chinese control.
The problem with Trump taking Tsai's call is that it was done on the assumption (By Trump) that this will give him more leverage in negotiations with China, on Trade, co-operation, etc..
But what he doesn't understand is that a "Deal" in the business world is different from a "deal" in international politics. Because business deals are ahistorical, and only revolve around pragmatism and the final result. International politics are COMPLETELY historical, and also burdened with things like, culture, strategy, former treaties, politics, core principles, race. These are the intangible things that make up Statecraft, and transaction counts for very little.
Trump's thinks that by bringing up the issue of Taiwan or One-China, he will bring a better negotiation position to the table, but what he doesn't understand is that because Taiwan has been bought up. Therefore there will be no negotiations. There will be no table either..
And he won't/can't understand this logic, because he's a complete transactionalist.
International politics are COMPLETELY historical, ...
I don't think so. The motivation for many countries - if not all of them, including the U.S. - to establish diplomatic recognition with China and to maintain only second-class diplomatic relations with Taiwan was mainly business. Geostrategic considerations helped in the case of many Western countries, but that "potential market" was the main consideration.
I'm not too optimistic that Taiwan will draw much benefit from a Trump administration, and the effects of it may also be reverse. But having the phone conversation with Trump was the best choice Tsai could make under the current circumstances. If nothing else, at least this helped to put the "one-China" policy into perspective. It's not carved in stone.
"The motivation for many countries - to establish diplomatic recognition with China and to maintain only second-class diplomatic relations with Taiwan was mainly business."
No, this is completely wrong, if you've studied statecraft you will realise that International relations/politics is totally burdened by history.
History is what brings you to this point ie the 1979 Taiwan relations act, was signed in the historical context of the Cold war and the Sino-Soviet split.
"Geostrategic considerations helped in the case of many Western countries, but that "potential market" was the main consideration."
If this was true, then there would be no need for formal Diplomats or a Foreign service because then businessmen would be the diplomats.
Obviously this is not the case.
You don't realize it now, but Trump regards Taiwan as a trading token for his own interests.
There seems to be a wide-spread belief in everything that was once recorded. History records are usually slanted in favor of those currently in power. That's true in many places, but particularly in China, where the previous guys in power are usually depicited as particularly immoral (and unsuccessful, of course) elements. (Recently, the CCP has been nice to Sun Yat-sen, but they never fail to point out the incomplete character of the 1911 revolution.
It keeps fascinating me how the most corrupted records are exactly those who keep receiving the greatest worship. But if it makes you feel better, keep believing, Beau Yang.
If this was true, then there would be no need for formal Diplomats or a Foreign service because then businessmen would be the diplomats.
Hardly so. Division of labor applies here, too - and besides, who of the business people should be his or her country's ambassador per country? Should the biz people elect one? Would the elected be sufficiently impartial, or would they have to suspend their own business? Should their country's administration appoint a businessman-diplomat? And should he / they all be immune from prosecution in their host country?
I don't think Taiwan will get too much benefit out of this. But even if Trump's contact with Tsai was a mere ploy, he'll owe Taipei one upgrade or another.
All that said, diplomacy can be conducted officially or semi-officially (as by Taiwan, in most cases). What really matters, is international perceptibility, and trade (not least as a basis for an efficient military).
Okay I get it you want Taiwan to be independent and free, me too..
But what is transpiring with Trump's call to Tsai is not in Taiwan's best interest.
"I don't think Taiwan will get too much benefit out of this. But even if Trump's contact with Tsai was a mere ploy, he'll owe Taipei one upgrade or another."
You need to spend more time studying Trump's core instincts. He doesn't respect the idea of Treaties. Everything is zero-sum with him, look at his comments on NATO, Estonia, Japan and South Korea.
Put yourself in the shoes of her National Security Adviser, what do you tell her?
1) Our #1 democratic ally is run by a man who regards alliances as negotiable.
2) The Hardline elements within the PLA and Chinese leadership will have their case for "Forcible reunification" greatly enhanced.
Either way Taiwan is in a lose, lose situation here.
You need to spend more time studying Trump's core instincts.
That's the point. Not even people who know Trump personally can predict how the files he is going to inherit will shape his choices. Btw, treaties can be cancelled - this goes for treaties among nations, too.
Frankly, I can't put myself into the shoe's of Tsai's national security adviser. But what I can see from here is that upgrading contact with Washington is the best (possible) choice she has. Yes, it can prove inefficient. But look at the alternative. Beijing is not available for dialogue with the Tsai admin, unless she "agrees to the 1992 consensus". Being prepared to maintain the status quo, as she has pledged to do, is not enough in the CCP's view.
Under these circumstances, Taipei has to try to expand its options - especially when options do appear to be on offer.
A note on Trump: he's probably the meanest guy I have seen coming into office in my living memory (which goes back to the late 1970s). But it's too early to judge his presidency.
Remember Barack Obama's lofty plans? I think he was a fairly good president, given the circumstances, but if I go by his announcement, he wasn't the president he really wanted to be.
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