Somewhat missed amongst the recent happenings in the UK and the US was the elevation of Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and head of the Chinese Communist Party, to the status of "core leader". Whilst some have be given to down-playing this, I think it significant in at least two ways.
Firstly, this signals a definite and final break with the Hu/Wen model of a dual leadership team of near-equals. There is absolutely no question now that Li Keqiang (the Chinese premier) is subordinate to Xi Jinping in a way that Wen Jiabao was not subordinate to Hu Jintao. Xi Jinping is the paramount leader of China and no talk from the CCP about how collective leadership still “must always be followed" can change the fact that having declared Xi to be a core leader on a par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping his word will be final.
The second significant aspect of this is that it further brings into question whether Xi will step down in 2022. Until relatively recently it was assumed amongst China watchers that the convention set by Hu/Wen of leadership teams serving ten-year terms together and then being replaced by the next generation of leadership would continue into the future. Whilst there was no real reason to believe this, and I myself did not believe it would carry on like this in a system with no checks and balances preventing the leadership simply arrogating power to themselves, Xi has now raised himself above such conventions and placed himself on a par with leaders who ruled China for decades. Moreover the generation of CCP leadership that might have replaced him is now significantly thinned and cowed as a result of Xi's "anti-corruption" campaign.
Back in the Hu/Wen years, one particularly silly argument you sometimes saw put forward by supporters of the CCP as to why they did not believe that China was a dictatorship was that China did not have a single dictator in charge at the top. Whatever validity this argument had is now completely wiped out. China now very clearly has a dictator - Xi Jinping - and there is now little preventing Xi staying on for another five, ten or even more years and becoming a Chinese Brezhnev.
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The second significant aspect of this is that it further brings into question whether Xi will step down in 2022.
Indeed - some of Xi's policies wouldn't appear logical if he intended to resign around 2023.
I somehow find it hard to fathom Xi Jinping not officially stepping down in 2022.
The popular support the government still enjoys with the educated middle/upper-middle classes is partly premised on the fact that these people don't believe they live in a nasty dictatorship. They think they live in a reasonable, reformed, open country which can gain respect from the rest of the world. This might seem silly to outsiders, but that's how most of them perceive their country.
In order for them to continue believing this, it is necessary for the government not to be too openly repressive and dictatorial in an old-style kind of way. Having the same president officially in power for life would be unpopular with the urban middle classes, who among other things would think this makes China look bad abroad (this is a huge issue for the Chinese public, much more than it would be for the public in a Western country). They've got used to the same party being in power indefinitely, but they are no longer used to the same man being in power for life, and won't easily get used to it again.
I think Xi Jinping is more likely to step down and continue ruling from behind the scenes. Even Deng Xiaoping did that by the way.
I think Xi Jinping is more likely to step down and continue ruling from behind the scenes. Even Deng Xiaoping did that by the way.
Deng did that, but gradually lost power anyway. He criticized Jiang's economic conservatism in the early 1990s, and Jiang obliged, and took a more reformist approach.
But when Deng criticized the way Jiang (who had never been supposed to become too powerful) strengthened his faction by systematic promotion, that criticism remained without response.
A new secretary general will become the man in charge - be it as a "core leader"; be it as "the core of the leadership collective".
Jiang Zemin, too, was a core leader - in fact, the only leader who couldn't pick the title in recent decades was Hu Jintao. Deng was either the most influential leader, or the second-most influential leader after Mao. That's a league of its own. Jiang didn't enter it. Xi's "anti-corruption campaign" suggests that he sees himself in just that premier league.
Jiang did try to hold on to the CMC commissions' chairmanship after his retirement as secretary-general and state chairman, but he wasn't successful at that.
A core leader will need to take it all, or he'll end up in retirement.
"In order for them to continue believing this, it is necessary for the government not to be too openly repressive and dictatorial in an old-style kind of way."
The "old style kind of way" actually wasn't even the old style kind of way. We think of the old communist states as being savagely repressive and ruled by the secret police - this is of course true but not to the extent that you might think from just examining the terminal period of, say, East Germany. The massive security apparatus that the Stasi built was mostly built up in the last ten years of the existence of that state.
"Having the same president officially in power for life would be unpopular with the urban middle classes, who among other things would think this makes China look bad abroad (this is a huge issue for the Chinese public, much more than it would be for the public in a Western country)."
As foreigners we are rather given to over emphasising the degree to which Chinese people care about what the outside world thinks of them, and underestimating the ability of the Chinese government to create a false impression of what the outside world's view of China is. An expat living in China continually meets Chinese people who naturally wish to give them a positive impression of the country, but this is not the general attitude of the country towards the outside world.
"They've got used to the same party being in power indefinitely, but they are no longer used to the same man being in power for life, and won't easily get used to it again."
We have already seen the start of a personality cult around Xi Jinping, albeit a half-hearted attempt. If Xi wishes to rule indefinitely there is nothing stopping him doing so, least of all public opinion.
Xi has steadily tightened and tightened his grip on power in China. I see absolutely no reason why he wouldn't go on doing so.
"I think Xi Jinping is more likely to step down and continue ruling from behind the scenes. Even Deng Xiaoping did that by the way."
That would take a particular strength of character, and sureness of his position, that Xi Jinping does not appear to have (or at least there is no evidence that he has). Instead, like Putin, he has made many enemies and may never be able to safely retire, at least not without a successor attempting to undo what he has done.
"Deng was either the most influential leader, or the second-most influential leader after Mao. That's a league of its own. Jiang didn't enter it. Xi's "anti-corruption campaign" suggests that he sees himself in just that premier league."
What worries me is that whilst the anti-corruption campaign shows that he wishes to be considered more than just a caretaker of communist rule, by itself it is not enough to truly cement his position. Instead Xi may attempt some adventure.
"As foreigners we are rather given to over emphasising the degree to which Chinese people care about what the outside world thinks of them, and underestimating the ability of the Chinese government to create a false impression of what the outside world's view of China is. An expat living in China continually meets Chinese people who naturally wish to give them a positive impression of the country, but this is not the general attitude of the country towards the outside world."
Chinese people generally, but especially the middle classes I am talking about, care quite a lot about what the rest of the world thinks of China, and whether their country is "respected" in the world. This is partly because the government encourages them to care about this, assuring them that it is important to make China rich and strong again so that foreigners will "respect China". They are told that the discrimination Chinese people suffered abroad in the past was due to the fact that their country was weak and bullied. This is why a lot of Chinese unfortunately think making China powerful is more important than making it a decent place for its own people to live.
I don't underestimate the Chinese government's ability to create a false impression, but still I think urban China is now worldly enough that people know full well how ridicolous and backward a "leader for life" would seem to the outside world. The Chinese themselves are always making fun of North Korea's hereditary leadership.
"I think urban China is now worldly enough that people know full well how ridicolous and backward a "leader for life" would seem to the outside world."
Russia is even more urbanised, economically developed, and worldly than China, yet Putin has now been in power there for more than 16 years and will likely still be in power there at the end of this decade. Ultimately, when you have all the organs of state behind you and control over the media (and in all cases Xi is more powerful in this regard than Putin) then it doesn't matter so much what people think.
Alternatively, back in the 1990's in the US the idea of essentially dynastic choices for president would have been thought a bit ridiculous (the Roosevelts being the last example). Now we have seen first George W. Bush and soon (I fervently hope) Hillary Clinton as president - people can get used to such things.
"Russia is even more urbanised, economically developed, and worldly than China, yet Putin has now been in power there for more than 16 years and will likely still be in power there at the end of this decade. Ultimately, when you have all the organs of state behind you and control over the media (and in all cases Xi is more powerful in this regard than Putin) then it doesn't matter so much what people think."
What people think always matters everywhere. Control of the media is important for this reason.
Russia is a very different place from China. In Russia people may genuinely not care so much about what the rest of the world thinks, and plus most of the Russian people have a yearning for a "strong leader" that puts things in order by force, especially after the mess of the nineties. The public also has a cynical, nihilistic worldview (which the media encourages) according to which everything and everyone is corrupt and acting out of self-interest, so a leader who manages to impose himself over his opponents and stay in power by force and stealth is admired and respected. They are also convinced, even more than the Chinese, that their country is fighting for survival against hostile foreign countries lead by the United States, and so any leader who is perceived as being strong in dealing with foreign threats is respected. This is why most of the Russian public (not all) accepts Putin as their leader.
I think the cultural and psychological forces at play are different from the ones you find in China, although there are many similarities.
"In Russia people may genuinely not care so much about what the rest of the world thinks"
The continual drum-beat of talk about foreign "Russophobia" in the Russian media strongly suggests otherwise, as does the activities of Russian propaganda operations like RT.
"most of the Russian people have a yearning for a "strong leader" that puts things in order by force"
The Chinese people differ little in this regard. Worship of Mao continues, as does adoration of Deng Xiaoping. Xi is attempting to set up the same thing for himself.
"The public also has a cynical, nihilistic worldview (which the media encourages) according to which everything and everyone is corrupt and acting out of self-interest, so a leader who manages to impose himself over his opponents and stay in power by force and stealth is admired and respected."
This attitude is also often seen in China. Few truly believe that the CCP leadership are paragons of virtue, instead they are convinced that everyone else is just as bad and that anyone who dissents is in the pay of foreign forces.
" They are also convinced, even more than the Chinese, that their country is fighting for survival against hostile foreign countries lead by the United States"
I think you know that Chinese people also do this. The latest Lowy poll ( https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/china-and-world-public-opinion-and-foreign-policy ) had 50% of those interviewed regarding the USA as a threat to China, 77% of those who agreed with this believed that the US sought to restrict China's rise, 76% thought that it would support separatist elements.
Of course,both Russia and China also see a commonly-held admiration of the USA and a wish to emigrate to there.
"any leader who is perceived as being strong in dealing with foreign threats is respected. This is why most of the Russian public (not all) accepts Putin as their leader."
Xi propagates exactly the same image of himself (see, for example, his Mexico speech - http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/01/12/wikileaked-chinas-next-president-lashed-out-in-mexico-against-well-fed-foreigners/ ) and many Chinese people approve of it. Nationalism is also rife in China.
That Xi is also thought to be an admirer of Putin also indicates that he may seek to emulate him.
However, the biggest reason why I believe that Xi will attempt to stay on is simply this: because he can.
Yes, but in some ways China is very different from Russia.
Just this morning I was joking with my Chinese colleagues about what I would do if I were to become president of China. I said that I would abolish the death penalty.
One of my colleagues, a 23 year old girl who's just come back from getting a master's degree in Manchester, said "but I thought the death penalty no longer exists in China". I told her that China has more than 2000 executions a year, and she had no idea. I have known other young people who think that the death penalty is pretty much abolished in China.
Believe it or not, a lot of young, well-off Chinese think they live in a country with perfectly civilised and reasonable policies, and that Westerners think they are a dictatorship out of simple prejudice. If Xi Jinping stayed in power for life, it would probably cause a few them to question the system they live in a bit more.
Then again, I am not saying it couldn't happen.
"One of my colleagues, a 23 year old girl who's just come back from getting a master's degree in Manchester, said "but I thought the death penalty no longer exists in China". I told her that China has more than 2000 executions a year, and she had no idea. I have known other young people who think that the death penalty is pretty much abolished in China.
Yeah, I'm a bit surprised by this, but not very surprised. I remember asking a group of students at Nanjing Normal to guess how many executions took place in China every year, and then hearing surprised gasps when I told them the figure that Amnesty International had published (one not too different to the one you provided). They at least knew that China does practise the death penalty, they were just surprised to learn that it did to such a massive extent, and had thought that there were fewer executions in China than in the United States, where of course they had heard that many took place.
There are indeed many Chinese people who are simply unaware that their country verges on being a pariah state, that it is regarded internationally as a dictatorship. More sophisticated Chinese know this but simply blame foreign "media bias" for it - the ready made explanation for every contradiction between China's self-image and the perception of China internationally provided by China's government-controlled media outlets.
"Believe it or not, a lot of young, well-off Chinese think they live in a country with perfectly civilised and reasonable policies, and that Westerners think they are a dictatorship out of simple prejudice. If Xi Jinping stayed in power for life, it would probably cause a few them to question the system they live in a bit more."
This might be true, but ultimately it won't change the direction in which China is headed. As we've seen nationalism is a powerful tool for repressing internal dissent, particularly when reinforced by the idea of seeking national glory or the redressing of perceived wrongs - imagine just how powerful Xi Jinping might be after, say, a successful invasion of Taiwan.
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