Friday, 27 May 2016

The likely effect of Brexit on the UK economy


justrecently said...

I think it's important to see the likely economic consequences of a Brexit. Having said that, I think the Cameron government (and Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) don't seem to have real plans for changing the EU.

The EU can be a great thing when it comes to negotiating international trade agreements. But the Union can only work if governments on the national level have real room to maneuver - and if their performance can be measured. Neither works if tons of things can be blamed on a poorly legitimatized supra-national entity.

I think London would find allies if Britain's political class really wanted positive change in Europe - countries like Poland, Greece, Italy and maybe France, too, would be happy to see a positive force at work in Britain.

But to both sides - the supporters of remaining in the EU and the Brexit advocates - the national benefit is hardly a priority. Some day, or soon, you might see Boris Johnson moving into 10 Downing Street. With statements like "We tried Brexit, but the powers that be wouldn't have it, and now we will make the best of the situation."

Bla, bla.

Gilman Grundy said...

Gove I can kind of forgive as he's been pretty clear about his views on Europe for a very long time. Whilst I admit that he has possibly changed in the mean time, I do remember the articles he wrote back in the late 90's/early 2000's where he reacted to events in absurd fashion (I recall from - admittedly imperfect - memory him writing, after 9/11, about how Britain "defeated extremism at the battle of Omdurman") and I would never want him as prime minister.

Johnson, on the other hand very clearly just jumped on the Brexit bandwagon in February as he saw it as a win either way - if he wins he can claim the victory as a mandate, if he loses he can simply say that he fought the good fight but now, as you say, the people have spoken and we have to make the best of it. I voted for him as mayor when I lived in London, as he was clearly preferable to Ken Livingstone (who now apparently cannot shut up about Adolf Hitler) but as a prime minister I fear that whilst he is now popular he lacks the gravitas necessary for the role.

Frankly I hope Cameron stays. If he goes I hope George Osbourne gets the job but he would have a lot of work to do to overcome his public image as a master-of-cuts. Ruth Davidson would make a very good party leader but she has a job to do in Scotland. Theresa May has a reputation as an authoritarian that will be hard to overcome. Sajid Javid seems like a possibility but I really don't know enough about him to say for sure.