Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Libya: a civil war?


This report from the BBC has the eastern part of Libya, the part that was known until not so long ago as Cyrenaica in under the control of those who wish to topple Gaddafi. The forces opposing the Gaddafi regime appear to be well armed and have the support of a good part of Libya's diplomatic corps, yet a substantial part of the military has also sided with Gaddafi, and is reportedly also supported by mercenaries.

Let's be clear on this: Libya now stands close to where Spain stood in July 1936 - either one side will throw in the towel, or, as seems increasingly likely, one faction will have to destroy the other in an open civil war. If this happens, I think there should be no doubt as to which side should have the support of the democracies of the world. However, hopefully this will not be necessary.

[Picture: The Ruins of Guernica, 1937, one of the 80,000 plus photos provided by the German Bundesarchiv to Wikipedia on a CC-BY-SA license]

3 comments:

justrecently said...

I think Gaddafi has lost the standing it would take to wage a civil war. If the people on this plane were indeed family people, it's a strong indication that it's over for Gaddafi. Unfortunately, the brotherly leader seems to favor a twilight-of-the-gods scenario.
It could be very bloody - but I believe it won't last long.

FOARP said...

Every infantryman who has shot at protesters, every crewman aboard the warships which have been firing off the coast, every pilot who has strafed crowds, has become someone handcuffed to the Gaddaffi regime.

But you may be right. The Spanish civil war only lasted so long because it took the form of two revolutions, in two separate parts of Spain. To defeat a revolution a counter-revolution is needed, and Gaddaffi is seemingly incapable of acheiving this.

Lê Thanh Đức said...

Libya Solutions


1 - United Nations: discussion (part) 'democracy' with 'country' (including 2 points - found: Consensus in the 'country')
+ Protesters' about 2 / 3 - The country people '(anti-government) -> governments' innovation completely. " Approximately 1 / 3 'country people' -> compromise 'response'.

+ The 'leader' country: tenure (and vote 'trend': two times a term.)

2 - (Outside) no intervention (internal):
conflict 'protest' - 4 elements:

+ Authorities 'response' 'rights' (people).

+ Review: 'water quantity' 'against government' (Libya. ..) - how to resolve 'demanding' people.

+ 'Government' is not 'resolutions'' Security Council United Nations' (votes' absolute ') and' leader 'is not' banned movement. "

+ The 'link in the region' 'not opposed' (ie the Arab League, ASEAN, Africa ...).

3 - Apply 'military intervention' (external) - based on:

+ Article 7 - The United Nations Charter

+ A country (outside) no intervention. Number of coordinated water (shown: part - many 'people' World).

4 - Make 'intervention measures' 'outside' 'purpose':

+ Prevent conflict (violence): 'government' and 'people - oppose'.

+ Response: 'government solutions' and (require) 'protesters'.

+ Intervention (external): 'solution' and stop (escalation) 'conflict' and 'faction' (in water).

+ 'Required' 'the government' (is): Negotiation - meet 'the people' -> stop 'intervention' (population: the decision).

5 - The 'intervention' ('outside' or 'water' 'participation'):

+ Response: desire 'majority, World - purpose (' on ') (Section 4).

+ Do not 'responsible' build 'new government' (citizens 'decision').

+ The (problem) 'conflict' Left: the 'UN' 'coordination' in every country and region.



United Nations implement 5 'elements' (above) is:

- Avoid (condition - in Libya), the protesters 'conflict' (assert basic 'human'). 'Government' apply 'the protesters' armed -> create 'force' rebel: repression.

- Avoid: the wrong intervention (external) as 'constraints' (factors '4 '- Section 2) and ('4 Factors' section 4).

- The solution (on the) 'did not happen Civil War' (by 'community' is not 'recognized' and 'isolation'.
Government (will) meet the 'right people' and (will) 'no fear' 'protests'.


Human civilization: to know - the unified 'solution' (above) -> is not 'civil war'.