tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post2251550916637630273..comments2023-12-29T00:08:21.051-08:00Comments on fear of a red planet: Isn't China a superpower already?Gilman Grundyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-35083472547447904312012-08-14T09:39:13.590-07:002012-08-14T09:39:13.590-07:00I think it isn't only soft power. It's als...I think it isn't only soft power. It's also influence via business. Very few people who invested in China will publicly criticize the party, or the state. And many will actually defend both.<br /><br /><b>MAC</b> mentioned <b>Thomas Friedman</b> <a href="http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/08/leaving-china-westernizing-playing-victim-etc/comment-page-1/#comment-180458" rel="nofollow">over there</a> - and he mentioned that "the poor guy" (<b>MK</b>, the author of the linked article) "felt too invested to get out sooner".<br /><br />That's MAC's interpretation, and it isn't necessarily the case with MK. But I believe that the strongest driver of the CCP's global influence (politically, too) lies in global business.<br /><br />That's also where the CCP is most different from the CPSU.<br /><br />On a different note: thanks for your active commenting on my Syria/South-China post. The thread is approaching a record number of comments. However, I can assure you that <b>Enoch</b> will never agree with you - not even if <b>Shen Zhihua</b>, in future, should publicly say something like "let's scrap that 'it's-all-Stalin's-fault. After all, Mao could have said 'No'." Quite probably, Enoch won't even concede that <i>Stalin</i> appeared to have wanted the war. It's all Kim, and the "civl war".<br /><br />I'm not going to speculate about why this will go on and on, but I can tell you that it will, as long as someone keeps discussing the issue.justrecentlyhttp://justrecently.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-75003028309590395802012-08-14T07:42:18.198-07:002012-08-14T07:42:18.198-07:00The admiration you describe might fit within the d...The admiration you describe might fit within the definition of 'soft power', but does it lead to actual influence? Does it more likely that the PRC will attract allies? I have trouble believing this.<br /><br />The USSR's allies were, with a few exceptions, all countries which relied on the guarantee of violent Soviet intervention if overhtorwn in a revolution to keep them in power. The exceptions are Cuba, Nicaragua, and (possibly) North Korea, which relied on the Soviets to defend them against foreign powers.<br /><br />None of these countries lended even token support to, say, the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. Support from the Warsaw Pact powers for Operation Danube, which was supposed to be a peaceful operation, came with the tacit threat that non-cooperation would mean that they would be next on the list - the exception was Ceaușescu who was otherwise the most reliable of the Soviet allies. Only the Soviets and their local allies took part in the crushing of the Hungarian uprising.<br /><br />Yet their domination of Central and Eastern Europe <i>did</i> guarantee a ready chorus of national leaders willing to give lip-service to whatever it was that the Soviet Union happened to want that particular day. It also guaranteed the loyalty of co-ideologists who hoped for their countries to enter into a similar relationship with the USSR. <br /><br />Compare to the PRC today: how many people graduating from Cambridge or Harvard this year would gladly spy for free for the PRC the way Blunt, Philby, Maclean, Burgess, and X spied for the USSR? How many national leaders would gladly give a speech supporting, say, the PRC's position on the South China Sea dispute, or some other issue in which they had no interest? With the possible exception of North Korea, how many national leaders will sleep safely in their beds tonight in the knowledge that they are an ally of the PRC? And if these things do not happen now, when will they happen? <br /><br />Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-28625466214550955012012-08-14T06:32:51.932-07:002012-08-14T06:32:51.932-07:00China's political system may not be able to to...China's political system may not be able to touch "the masses" abroad, but it seems to me that they have done a great job in coopting foreign elites. I've heard business executives who gushed about how China creates <i>elites</i> and puts them, rather than the "stupid average citizens" (many different variations of this term), efficiently in charge, and the way former German chancellor <b>Helmut Schmidt</b> talks about China (incredibly "innocent" stuff, and his role in an international "action group for human responsibilities" (something he and his fellows would like to see side by side with the Declaration of Human Rights) points into the same direction.<br /><br />Schmidt spoke on the "China Cultural Year" in Germany (i. e. early this year), and it was evident that his knowledge about China came from China's past and current leaders, from literature recommended to him either by them, or just as CCP-friendly sinologists, and <b>Kissinger</b> and <b>Heath</b> would be similar points in case. <br /><br />Elected officials won't admire totalitarianism openly (and among most, I believe, that admiration is either non-existent or guarded), but I'm sure that many of them can see its convenience for a political and leading business class. In those terms, China is much more "attractive" than the USSR ever was.<br /><br />As far as I can remember, the USSR was a rather friendless state, at least in the (early) 1980s.justrecentlyhttp://justrecently.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-25572553627721821552012-08-14T05:27:17.696-07:002012-08-14T05:27:17.696-07:00@JR - Comprehensive power may be the true measure,...@JR - Comprehensive power may be the true measure, but if it is, then China is surely already superpower - exceeding the Soviet Union in its pomp in all but political influence.<br /><br />But, as I'm beginning to think, acheiving political influence is critical in China becoming a super-power, then will China ever become one? Looking at China's current level of influence over events in, say, Syria, or the South China Sea, it is hard to say how they are much more than they were over events in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere in the 90's.<br /><br />Again, though, the USSR's political influence was also a weakness. The political legitimacy of the Soviet system could be directly affected by the collapse of the governments which relied on its support. For the PRC, though, there is no such linkage. The collapse of the Laotian regime and its replacement by a democratic government would cause only the slightest tremor in Beijing.Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-29741290952941032122012-08-14T00:46:58.196-07:002012-08-14T00:46:58.196-07:00Your posts lists single fields in which China woul...Your posts lists single fields in which China would count as a superpower. But according to <b>Mark Lenonard</b> ("What does China think"), "compehensive national power" is the thing, scientifically measured as (P=KxHxS) by the Chinese Military Academy, for example. Models like these, according to Leonard, explain why Japan, with a GDP of $1,220 billion, was no superpower, why the USSr, with a GDP of 741.9 billion, was (p. 85). At the same time, Leonard suggests, it has become a "truism" that the Soviet Union spent itself (militarily) "into oblivion". The challenge: how to defeat a <i>technologically superior opponent</i>.<br /><br />That's the point, I suppose. They are either number one (where they "belong"), or they are noone. And once they are the number one, they'll be unhappy once again, because the world doesn't <i>love</i> them, and is still being <i>impious</i>.justrecentlyhttp://justrecently.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.com