tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post1961109310312013773..comments2023-12-29T00:08:21.051-08:00Comments on fear of a red planet: "The Panama Route", the Panama Papers, and China's diplomatic relationsGilman Grundyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-55277009242673616522016-04-08T09:24:47.899-07:002016-04-08T09:24:47.899-07:00I think you might be missing the point.
That may ...<i>I think you might be missing the point.</i><br /><br />That may be so. But <i>my</i> argument is that with or without diplomatic relations alike, the CCP leaders can stave any anti-corruption investigation against themselves off, as long as they are in power. And if they are not, and new kids in power launch an investigation, there'll be access to information from Panama, provided that Panama cooperates.<br /><br />That can be the case either with or without diplomatic relations. The Taiwanese government does have diplomatic relations with Panama - at least for now -, but they do <i>not</i> have cooperation treaties with Panama that would allow for efficient investigations in cases of alleged tax evasion, <a href="http://english.rti.org.tw/m/news/?recordId=45154" rel="nofollow">according to the outgoing minister of finance</a>.<br /><br />These are two different fields of cooperation, and either of them can exist without the other.justrecentlyhttps://justrecently.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-89317756122538677082016-04-08T03:52:50.741-07:002016-04-08T03:52:50.741-07:00@justrecently:
I think you might be missing the p...@justrecently:<br /><br />I think you might be missing the point. The argument here is that it is preferred that Panama should have no diplomatic relations with China because China's upper class like to have a place where they can stow away their money out of China's reach, in case one day they become the victim of an "anti-corruption investigation", or in any case lose favour with the government. It's a guarantee for everyone. I too think it's implausible, but you never know. Ji Xianghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03406727999722525339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-7977446010766375522016-04-07T12:44:50.047-07:002016-04-07T12:44:50.047-07:00Hi JR,
First off, apologies that I'm now mode...Hi JR,<br /><br />First off, apologies that I'm now moderating all comments.<br /><br />Second - I mention the Panama thing not because I really believe it, but just because it has a least a degree of plausibility to it. It at least makes as much sense as holding off on recognition until Tsai has made her acceptance speech.<br /><br />China may be able to obliterate news from the public's view, but it is not the general public whose opinion matters here, but that of the high-level leaders and their families. Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-3630541828597577552016-04-07T06:37:35.476-07:002016-04-07T06:37:35.476-07:00Panama appears to be trying to switch relations, h...Panama appears to be <i>trying</i> to switch relations, having invited Xi Jinping for the opening ceremony of the opening ceremony at the expanded canal, the SCMP <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1931050/taiwans-president-elect-tsai-ing-wen-has-dilemma-panama" rel="nofollow">quotes a Taiwanese think-tank director</a>. However, his explanation would be different, suggesting that Beijing might allow the switch if angered by Tsai's inauguration speech.<br /><br />That may or be not the case, but I don't think that the Chinese upper classes will depend on Panama's status as Taiwan's "diplomatic ally". A political regime that can easily obliterate inconvenient news from practically the entire population is far from a rule-of-law status. It isn't even nearing such a status.<br /><br />Even in Germany, a prosecutor, however keen he may be on discovering illegal activities, can be switched off by his superiors pretty easily, because he depends on orders from his superiors. The party-financing scandal of the 1980s to the 1990s was a case where this became pretty evident.<br /><br />And that was in a rule-of-law country. Want to try to conduct an investigation with real teeth in China? Good luck with that, no matter where Panama's ambassador is.justrecentlyhttps://justrecently.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-37458838453182933342016-04-06T05:31:21.701-07:002016-04-06T05:31:21.701-07:00Hi Jixiang, yeah, it's not something I've ...Hi Jixiang, yeah, it's not something I've seen picked up on in reports on this story either even though it is a fairly obvious driver behind Chinese interest in off-shoring to Panama. The rebuffing of the recognition-switch is the thing that raises suspicions but there isn't enough evidence to say anything for sure at this point.<br /><br />Of course, Mossack Fonseca are still yet to be accused of any illegality so nothing said here should be taken as implying any wrong-doing on their part.Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-67770072714325816062016-04-06T03:55:29.504-07:002016-04-06T03:55:29.504-07:00Truly an interesting point about Panama not recogn...Truly an interesting point about Panama not recognizing the PRC. Ji Xianghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03406727999722525339noreply@blogger.com