tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post1250690250817049446..comments2023-12-29T00:08:21.051-08:00Comments on fear of a red planet: HSBC and world of 2050Gilman Grundyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-6061959815125557872011-01-06T14:44:45.460-08:002011-01-06T14:44:45.460-08:00@KT - I don't know if it's unreasonable fo...@KT - I don't know if it's unreasonable for people to expect food production to keep up with population growth - after all, this has been the case for the last 200 years. Not unreasonable, but far from certain is how I would put it.<br /><br />People who make long-term predictions are never going to be able to predict catastrophic change. That said, they are usually not so bad as things go. I recently re-read "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" by Paul Kennedy, a book written in 1987 which contained predictions for our present decade. Whilst the book failed to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union, it made it very clear indeed that the Soviet Union was in severe trouble and that some kind of rupture was likely. The book also failed to predict Japan's lost decade. In the case of China, however, the predictions were fairly accurate - though perhaps a bit over-optimistic in terms of the predicted growth figures. Predictions like these will never help clear up on the horse track, but they do give an idea of the more possible outcomes - they are like the odds given by the bookies (who do make a pretty penny from their predictions).<br /><br />I do share your opinion of the SARS scare-mongers though.Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-57645371252905935382011-01-06T13:43:54.283-08:002011-01-06T13:43:54.283-08:00I cant see why people are not jumping onto this ex...I cant see why people are not jumping onto this excellent op piece.<br /><br />Re: China's worries about food security, here is an excellent and detailed discussion of the issue.<br /><br />http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/MA07Cb02.html<br /><br />KTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-73222930209718577092011-01-05T14:41:26.681-08:002011-01-05T14:41:26.681-08:00A supplementary rant if I may re: computer future ...A supplementary rant if I may re: computer future modelling. Recall the SARS so-called epidemic in 02.<br /><br />All those WHO and other epidemiologists flying into Beijing with their facemasks and pcs overloaded with stat modelling programs. After a bit of nifty keyboard activity, they were throwing out predictions ranging from a 100,000 + deaths to the total demise of China as we know it.<br /><br />Reality check. Three deaths in Fujian where I lived and about 400 in the rest of China, and this was after a critical denial period by the Chinese authorities.<br /><br />Types who thinks they can model the future are self-important pseudo-academics, and their pay scale should be tied to the success or otherwise of their predictions.<br /><br />If they are so hot in the prediction department, why arent they cleaning up at Happy Valley. <br /><br />I feel better now.<br /><br />King TubbyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9138994904411225576.post-66612449326647405562011-01-05T13:56:24.980-08:002011-01-05T13:56:24.980-08:00Great post FOARP.
Long-term predictions determine...Great post FOARP.<br /><br />Long-term predictions determined by demographic changes are all very well, but they will always be trumped by far more immediate concerns about food security. And the latter is China's Achilles heel.<br /><br />Environmental degradation and extreme weather patterns are well and truly affecting the price of basic food staples in 10 and 11.<br /><br />Uncontrolled food inflation in turn impacts on social harmony, and once disharmony reaches a critical mass, all long-term predictions are reduced to so much statistical hot air within a glossy folder.<br /><br />Also, I would be paying attention to Evans-Pritchard's other points about credit binges and refer readers to Victor Shih's blog.<br /><br />King TubbyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com